[Reprint] China is a ghost town, Ireland-? _ value investors paradise

Original address: China will be a ghost town, Ireland-? author: danxuchang China will a ghost town, Ireland-Ireland do become Greece after the sovereign debt crises and a victim, their wealth in real estate-driven growth into a debt hole. Due to the large number of new and in-built housing is idle, Ireland or even a number of "ghost town". Ireland's lesson is profound, that is, depend on the wealth of the real estate value-driven growth there is serious risk that the debt crisis, either local debt crisis or deficit crisis or family debt crisis. Data shows that from 1995 to 2007, the average price of Ireland has gone up 3 to 4 times the price of the coefficient of relative family income also increased from 4 to 10. Ireland rates high even once hit a all OECD members. From 1996 to 2006 for 10 years, Ireland's real estate industry in the proportion of GDP had doubled, increasing from 5 percent to 10 percent. In 2007, Ireland's real estate industry employment proportion than in 1993, when doubled, reaching 13.3 per cent. The real estate industry gradually become Ireland's economic lifeline and important engine of growth. However, the financial crisis, the ultimate destruction of the wealth of the mythical growth mode. Therefore, in order to safeguard financial stability, the Government of Ireland had to expend to salvage their bank, the Bank of issue of the "one-shoulder pick", causing financial overwhelmed. As far as Ireland Government figures released by the end of September, Salvation national five banks can take up to 500 million euros, Ireland in this year's budget deficit would soar to 32 per cent of GDP, the history of the rare, which opened the debt crisis. Real estate kidnapped Bank, the Bank also kidnapped the Government, this is Ireland into sovereign debt crises of the simple logic behind. In that case, Ireland crisis will in Chinese the same pirated? actually worries me most is the debt crisis. The reason is simple, many young man bought a House, the work is not necessarily stable, it's hard to say the month for the stable supply and, moreover, these years to maintain the real estate market boom of the main sources of funding to finance capital, once the credit tightening (such as the recent period of time is limited, which is limited to credit order), the financial speculators might break the chain, some developers of capital chain may rupture. As the land market in the doldrums, places to eat by the land Government's local finance, nor does it better than somewhere. Therefore, China's real estate market downturn in the market once down, a possible crisis is the debt crisis. The debt crisis is not able to resolve the problem by printing, because many regimes in history is because debt crisis abuse printed banknotes, casting copper coins, and so on, makes the prices rose, serious inflation. From Western countries, banknote printing cannot resolve the debt crisis, more does not resolve the economic structure of the imbalance. For example, quantitative easing monetary policy, it was invented in Japan, but the results were not good, Japan's deficit and debt like a snowball, snowball. While the master global banknote of the United States, several rounds of quantitative easing, United States economy remains not much improvement, but by the global counter. European countries debt crisis, it is impossible to rely on printing solutions, including Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. These countries face than bankrupt Iceland Government a little better, but the debt crisis will pressure on them, many years will not get out. China relies on real estate-driven economic model, to some extent, there is no error, because the real estate itself is industrial, since there is no demand description resources, but also the mismatch is to satisfy people's growing material and cultural needs and investment needs. However, you can rely on real estate wealth, economic growth is driven only by advances in technology and new equipment for the application of new knowledge. Currency issuance and dilution effect can be used only for a moment, money illusion can't be driven asset growth and economic development of the common weapons. Thus, monetary hyper-hair to resolve the debt crisis, can only be let real estate price system more malformations, can only help more people in debt. On the one hand, our country has seen a lot of possibilities for ghost town is less, because China's real estate market is still in short supply in the State; but on the other hand, if you want to avoid the ghost town, Ireland-and the ghost town, I think the most important thing is to improve the capacity of potential buyers, to correct the deformity of wealth growth mode, to open up and improve more investment channels.